Odimmegwa Johnpeter/Abuja
The Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN) has dismissed claims by the Association of Power Generation Companies (APGC) that more than 2,500 megawatts (MW) of electricity are wasted daily due to grid unreliability, insisting that the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission’s (NERC) First Quarter 2026 Report shows the country’s electricity shortfall is primarily caused by limitations on the generation side rather than transmission.
In a statement issued in response to a report published by THISDAY on July 28, 2026,on Thursday, TCN said the narrative that Nigeria’s “stranded power crisis” is a transmission failure is inconsistent with the regulator’s audited data.
The company said that while APGC claimed Nigeria has over 15,500MW of installed generation capacity that is being constrained by a transmission network capable of wheeling only about 4,500MW, NERC’s report presents a different picture.
According to TCN, the Commission’s report shows that the average generation capacity declared available by GenCos during the first quarter of 2026 was only 4,457.96MW. It argued that this figure, which is supplied by the power plants themselves to the System Operator, reflects the amount of electricity available for dispatch before transmission becomes a factor.
The company also noted that the report places the total installed generation capacity of the 28 grid-connected power plants at 13,625MW, significantly below the more than 15,500MW cited in the APGC’s position.
TCN further maintained that its verified transmission wheeling capacity currently stands at 8,700MW following sustained investments in substations, transformers, and transmission lines across the country.
To support its claim, the company recalled that the national grid successfully transmitted a record peak generation of 5,801.84MW on March 4, 2025, delivering the highest daily energy of 128,370.75 megawatt-hours in Nigeria’s history. It added that similar peak deliveries of 5,713.60MW and 5,543.20MW were also achieved earlier in the year.
According to TCN, these records demonstrate that the grid has already carried power volumes well above the 4,500MW ceiling being attributed to it.
The transmission company also highlighted ongoing infrastructure expansion projects aimed at strengthening the national grid.
It disclosed that between January 2024 and November 2025, it commissioned 82 new power transformers, adding about 8,500MVA of transformation capacity nationwide. It also cited the reconductoring of several transmission lines, including the Delta-Effurun, Sokoto-Birnin Kebbi, and Ikeja West-Alimosho-Ogba-Alausa corridors, which have significantly increased transmission capacities.
TCN further referenced the commissioning of the Ihovbor-Benin and Ihovbor-Ajaokuta 330kV Turn-In Turn-Out transmission lines in April 2026, saying the projects added more than 600MW of wheeling capacity to the Benin axis and enhanced the evacuation capability for electricity generated by the Azura Power Plant and the Niger Delta Power Holding Company (NDPHC) plant at Ihovbor.
The company argued that NERC’s plant availability data points overwhelmingly to generation constraints.
It noted that the regulator recorded a Plant Availability Factor (PAF) of only 32.72 per cent for the first quarter of 2026, meaning that more than two-thirds of Nigeria’s installed generation capacity was unavailable for dispatch.
TCN cited several power plants that recorded extremely low availability during the quarter, including Alaoji 1, which had zero availability, Rivers 1 with 2.05 per cent, Ibom Power 1 and Sapele Steam 1 with 2.67 per cent each, Trans Amadi 1 with 8.41 per cent, and Omotosho 2 with 6.15 per cent.
It argued that these figures reflect gas supply shortages, mechanical failures, and maintenance issues at the generating stations rather than limitations within the transmission network.
The company also referenced comments by APGC’s Chief Executive acknowledging that gas supply to thermal power plants had dropped to less than 43 per cent of daily requirements, saying the admission aligns with NERC’s findings.
On hydropower generation, TCN noted that the report attributed a 28.8 per cent decline in available hydro capacity to seasonal low water levels as well as maintenance outages at Kainji, Jebba, Shiroro and Dadin-Kowa power stations.
The company further argued that if between 2,500MW and 4,000MW were genuinely stranded daily because of inadequate transmission capacity, the regulator’s load factor statistics would not support such claims.
According to TCN, NERC recorded an overall grid load factor of 92.26 per cent during the first quarter of 2026, indicating that only about 7.74 per cent of the generation capacity declared available by GenCos remained undispatched.
It estimated that this amounted to approximately 345MW, far below the 2,500MW to 4,000MW reportedly described as stranded generation.
The statement also noted that five generating plants—Trans Amadi 1, Geregu 1, Ibom Power 1, Dadin-Kowa 1 and Olorunsogo 1—recorded a 100 per cent load factor during the period, meaning all the electricity they made available was successfully evacuated by the grid.
Addressing claims of high transmission losses, TCN said NERC reported a Transmission Loss Factor of 7.96 per cent during the quarter, translating to an average loss of about 327MW rather than the 1,200MW to 1,300MW daily figure referenced in the report.
The company also clarified that the ₦2.61 billion cost associated with transmission loss factor underperformance included approximately ₦258 million in actual transmission losses, while the larger ₦2.35 billion component represented GenCo capacity penalties rather than physical losses on transmission lines.
TCN equally responded to references made to the partial grid collapse of January 27, 2026, which reportedly saw generation fall sharply from about 3,825MW to 39MW.
According to the company, NERC’s preliminary findings attributed the incident to inadequate reactive power support required to maintain voltage stability, an ancillary service linked to system planning and generation rather than transmission assets.
However, TCN acknowledged that a separate total system collapse on January 23, 2026, was traced to the separation of a busbar at the Sapele Transmission Station, although investigations later linked the operation of the protective device to a generating company connected to the TCN busbar.
The company also dismissed suggestions that the electricity industry’s reported ₦2.28 trillion capacity payment shortfall resulted from transmission constraints.
It argued that under the industry’s Partial Activation of Contract framework, electricity distribution companies are obligated to pay for contracted generation capacity regardless of whether they fully utilise it.
TCN noted that NERC’s report recorded Aggregate Technical, Commercial and Collection (ATC&C) losses of 37.44 per cent by DisCos during the first quarter of 2026, compared to the regulatory target of 16.92 per cent, resulting in a financial variance of ₦140.64 billion. The report also identified a ₦24.95 billion remittance shortfall owed to the Nigerian Bulk Electricity Trading Plc (NBET) and the Market Operator.
The transmission company concluded that while Nigeria’s electricity sector continues to face significant challenges, including gas shortages, vandalism and ageing infrastructure, available evidence from NERC’s own report indicates that the country’s “stranded power” problem originates predominantly from generation constraints rather than inadequate transmission wheeling capacity.
TCN reaffirmed its commitment to expanding transmission infrastructure through continued investment in substations, transmission lines, grid automation and anti-vandalism measures, while calling on stakeholders to base public discussions on verified regulatory data.
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